2004：专业人士的看法 - 彭博社

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我们调查的66位股市策略师的预测预示着2004年牛市将继续。但预计未来一年的收益将更加温和。平均而言，华尔街的预言家们预计道琼斯指数在这一年仅上涨6.2%。策略师们按年末对道琼斯的看法从最乐观到最悲观的顺序列出如下。

预测公司 (评论链接) 道琼斯工业平均指数 S&P 500 纳斯达克综合指数 罗素2000 资产配置 最喜欢的股票行业 最喜欢的股票
年中 年末 年末 年末 年末 美国股票 美国债券 国际股票
Elaine Garzarelli Garzarelli Capital 11850 1275 100% 0% 0% 0% 工业周期股
John J. Regan Americal Investment Strategies 10775 11830 1308 2570 696 70 0
Edward Yardeni Prudential Equity Group 11000 11700 1300 2200 675 60 10
Asher Plaut Brill Securities 10750 11500 1210 2200 675 75 0
Allan S. Roness ASR Corporate Consultants 10750 11500 1200 2350 615 80 0
Tobin Smith ChangeWave Research 10500 11500 1200 2350 675 65 0
J. Thomas Madden Federated Investors 12000 11500 1200 2300 640 45 33
Arthur R. Hogan Jefferies & Co. 10753 11453 1240 2353 621 60 20
Joseph Liro Stone & McCarthy Research Assoc. 11100 11425 1250 2250 640 55 25
Keith Wirtz Fifth Third Bank 11100 11400 1300 2400 640 60 20
David A. Katz Matrix Asset Advisors 10670 11260 1217 2298 608 70 15
Jon Brorson Neuberger Berman 10550 11200 1250 2365 665 60 10
Liz Ann Sonders Charles Schwab 11500 11200 1220 2400 600 工业周期股 Aspect Comm.
Clare W. Zempel Zempel Economics & Investment Strategies 10675 11150 1200 2225 625 50 15
Sam Stovall Standard & Poor’s 10780 11070 1190 2175 65 10 0
Charlie Crane Scotsman Capital Management 11000 11000 1170 2250 605 90 0
Fred Taylor U.S. Trust 10500 11000 1150 2200 625 50 25
Robert G. Morris Lord, Abbett & Co. 10500 11000 1225 2200 620 60 5
Richard A. Dickson Lowry’s Reports 10000 11000 1170 2500 620 60 0
Joseph Battipaglia Ryan Beck & Co. 10275 11000 1180 565 72 15 8
Thomas McManus Banc of America SecuritiesÊ 10600 11000 1160 2100 550 70 15
Jason Trennert ISI Group 10300 10975 1200 2075 575 75 20
Harvey B. Hirschhorn Columbia Mgmt. Group 10700 10900 1180 2175 570 53 30
Richard J. Nash Victory Capital Management 10525 10840 1160 2066 600 40 30
Vincent e. Gallagher Needham & Co. 11405 10834 1137 2053 579 30 0
James W. Paulsen Wells Capital Management 11300 10800 1175 2200 570 50 15
John Clarke H.C. Wainwright & Co. 10400 10800 1170 2150 655 55 15
George Jacobsen Trevor Stewart Burton & Jacobsen 10200 10800 1160 2300 600 80 20
Michael J. Vogelzang Boston Advisors 10500 10800 1400 2000 620 60 15
Dennis H. Ferro Evergreen Investment Mgmt. 10350 10800 1160 2137 608 50 20
Rod Smyth Wachovia Securities 10500 10800 1170 700 77 23 0
Jim Huguet Great Companies 10335 10760 1142 2038 650 55 10
Mark Jordahl US Bancorp Asset Management 10500 10750 1150 2150 572 50 35
David M. Joy American Express Financial Advisors 10350 10750 1150 2120 650 35 25
Ivan Gefen vFinance Investments 10300 10700 1105 2125 635 50 20
C. Kim Goodwin State Street Research & Mgmt. 10300 10700 1200 2150 600 50 30
Hugh Johnson First Albany Capital 10200 10700 1150 2300 580 100 0
Jeffrey N. Kleintop PNC Advisors 10250 10700 1150 2050 570 52 35
Warren D. Bagatelle Loeb Partners 10200 10600 1250 2600 565 60 12
Wendell Perkins Johnson Asset Management 10290 10600 1140 2156 600 44 10
Roger DeBard iGlobal Capital 11100 10590 1118 2026 561 39 16
Ann Cody Hilliard Lyons 11000 10550 1175 2300 600 60 20
SubodH KUMAR CIBC World Markets 10000 10500 1250 2500 550 43 20
Gary Tapp SunTrust Robinson Humphrey 10220 10500 1180 2040 586 65 15
Stuart T. Freeman A.G. Edwards & Sons 10800 10500 1170 590 63 25 7
ML Global Strategy & Economics Merrill Lynch 10500 1150 1950 610 40 45 5
Jeffrey L. Knight Putnam Investments 10500 10500 1120 2015 570 50 10
Jack Ablin Harris Trust and Savings Bank 10783 10494 1128 2063 590 40 35
Robert E. Reiser Jr. Wilmington Trust 10175 10475 1130 2030 580 35 20
John Leo Northern Trust 9950 10450 1135 1980 570 55 30
Barry Ritholtz Maxim Group 11100 10403 1150 2200 550 50 20
Richard R. Jandrain Bank One 10300 10400 1111 2100 580 60 17
Bruce Bittles RW Baird & Co. 9000 10400 1125 2025 600 60 30
Richard I. Sichel The Philadelphia Trust Co. 10900 10400 1124 2010 60 30 5
Bret M. Ginesky HPC Capital Management 9760 10382 1115 2085 590 50 30
Lawrence G. McMillan McMillan Analysis 11800 10200 1030 2100 630 40 0
Abhijit Chakrabortti JP Morgan 10500 10200 1100 1950 560 40 20
Richard E. Cripps Legg Mason Wood Walker 11000 10000 1100 60 40 0 0
Robert H. Stovall Wood Asset Management 10290 9980 1630 2015 498 50 12
Gail M. Dudack SunGard Institutional Brokerage 10600 9900 1130 50 20 10 10
Tobias Levkovich Smith Barney 9750 1025 55 35 0 10 金融
Stephen Sanborn Value Line Publishing 9400 9700 1080 75 15 0 10
Michael Painchaud 市场分析定理 9600 9600 1030 1700 490 40 0
Dan Dektar Smith Breeden Associates 9500 8900 960 1600 10 10 20
Peter Trapp Bifrost Fund 9500 8500 900 1500 475 10 0
Bernie Schaeffer Schaeffer’s Investment Research 9000 8000 850 1625 450 30 0
共识 10499 10665 1166 2143 598 56 17

*资产配置在某些情况下总和不为100，因为还有其他类别的配置，如黄金、房地产投资信托、对冲基金、衍生品和非美国证券

数据由安妮·特尔杰森和布赖恩·辛多编制