评估加息情况 - 彭博社

作者：Numer de Guia

关于美联储将在未来几个月内加息的猜测正在加剧。事实上，标准普尔首席经济学家大卫·怀斯预计，艾伦·格林斯潘及其团队将在美联储6月的政策会议上将基准联邦基金目标利率提高25个基点，达到1.25%。

在美联储开始加息后，股票投资者可以期待什么？标准普尔首席投资策略师萨姆·斯托瓦尔最近进行了一项研究，评估了过去美联储加息周期对股市及各个行业的影响（见《商业周刊》在线，2004年4月21日，“加息将重创哪些领域”）。他的研究涵盖了自1970年以来发生的六次货币紧缩周期。

需要两者。

斯托瓦尔发现，标准普尔500指数在美联储开始一系列加息后，平均下跌6%。他还注意到，在标准普尔全球工业分类系统下的10个主要经济部门中，只有医疗保健和信息技术在初次加息后平均实现了正的12个月回报。

而正是这一发现构成了本周筛选的基础。我们筛选了医疗保健和信息技术组中标准普尔最高投资评级5星（买入）的股票。标准普尔股票研究分析师预计，这些股票在未来6到12个月内将大幅超越整体市场：

这些是按行业出现的名称：

| | 首选：信息技术 | | — | | 公司/股票代码 | S&P STARS 排名 | | Adobe Systems (ADBE ) | 5 | | Affiliated Computer Services (ACS ) | 5 | | Analog Devices (ADI ) | 5 | | Applied Materials (AMAT ) | 5 | | Automatic Data Processing (ADP ) | 5 | | BEA Systems (BEAS ) | 5 | | Cisco Systems (CSCO ) | 5 | | Cree (CREE ) | 5 | | Emulex (ELX ) | 5 | | Flextronics International (FLEX ) | 5 | | Helix Technology (HELX ) | 5 | | Intel (INTC ) | 5 | | IBM Corp. (IBM ) | 5 | | Intrado (TRDO ) | 5 | | Microchip Technology (MCHP ) | 5 | | Microsoft (MSFT ) | 5 | | MKS Instruments (MKSI ) | 5 | | Open Text (OTEX ) | 5 | | Qualcomm INC (QCOM ) | 5 | | Sybase INC (SY ) | 5 | | Vishay Intertechnology (VSH ) | 5 | | Xilinx (XLNX ) | 5 | | 首选：医疗保健 | | Aetna (AET ) | 5 | | Amgen (AMGN ) | 5 | | Andrx Group (ADRX ) | 5 | | Cardinal Health (CAH ) | 5 | | Caremark Rx (CMX ) | 5 | | Celgene (CELG ) | 5 | | Coventry Health Care (CVH ) | 5 | | Cytyc (CYTC ) | 5 | | Hologic (HOLX ) | 5 | | Medtronic (MDT ) | 5 | | Mylan Labs (MYL ) | 5 | | Oxford Health Plans (OHP ) | 5 | | Pfizer (PFE ) | 5 | | Triad Hospitals (TRI ) | 5 | | Varian Medical Systems (VAR ) | 5 | | Wyeth (WYE ) | 5 | | Zimmer Holdings (ZMH ) | 5 | | 首选：信息技术 | 公司/股票代码 | S&P STARS 排名 | Adobe Systems (ADBE ) | 5 | Affiliated Computer Services (ACS ) | 5 | Analog Devices (ADI ) | 5 | Applied Materials (AMAT ) | 5 | Automatic Data Processing (ADP ) | 5 | BEA Systems (BEAS ) | 5 | | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | | Cisco Systems (CSCO ) | 5 | | Cree (CREE ) | 5 | | Emulex (ELX ) | 5 | | Flextronics International (FLEX ) | 5 | | Helix Technology (HELX ) | 5 | | Intel (INTC ) | 5 | | IBM Corp. (IBM ) | 5 | | Intrado (TRDO ) | 5 | | Microchip Technology (MCHP ) | 5 | | Microsoft (MSFT ) | 5 | | MKS Instruments (MKSI ) | 5 | | Open Text (OTEX ) | 5 | | Qualcomm INC (QCOM ) | 5 | | Sybase INC (SY ) | 5 | | Vishay Intertechnology (VSH ) | 5 | | Xilinx (XLNX ) | 5 | | 首选：医疗保健 | | Aetna (AET ) | 5 | | Amgen (AMGN ) | 5 | | Andrx Group (ADRX ) | 5 | | Cardinal Health (CAH ) | 5 | | Caremark Rx (CMX ) | 5 | | Celgene (CELG ) | 5 | | Coventry Health Care (CVH ) | 5 | | Cytyc (CYTC ) | 5 | | Hologic (HOLX ) | 5 | | Medtronic (MDT ) | 5 | | Mylan Labs (MYL ) | 5 | | Oxford Health Plans (OHP ) | 5 | | Pfizer (PFE ) | 5 | | Triad Hospitals (TRI ) | 5 | | Varian Medical Systems (VAR ) | 5 | | Wyeth (WYE ) | 5 | | Zimmer Holdings (ZMH ) | 5 |

德·吉亚是标准普尔投资组合服务的分析师