十问美国的接班人(中英文)-陈平
我非常震惊地看到，2012年2月10日，就在中国国家副主席习近平即将访美的前夜，《纽约时报》发表【特邀评论员社论】《十问中国的未来继承人》，作者沈大伟（David Shambaugh）是美国乔治•华盛顿大学中国政策研究室的主任。
作为一个中国问题专家，沈大伟教授肯定懂得高层外交中的基本礼仪。但是现在不是与纽约时报编辑们纠缠这个问题的时候。中国有句古话：“来而不往非礼也。”我且模仿沈大伟的口气，也向未来美国总统提出10个问题。如果这些问题在一些美国读者看来挑衅味十足，那么我事先道歉。
自二战以来，美国媒体总是教导全世界，说美国总统的合法性来自于选举，但世界各地的民众都在深深怀疑美国领袖是否具备处理世界事务和地区和平的勇气和智慧，尽管他们自封为世界警察与道德裁判。
这将是一个让中国人民了解美国也让美国人民了解中国的好机会。美国政策的朝三暮四在本国众所周知，但是中国和其他亚洲国家并不清楚。
这里是观察美国的人们想要知道的十个问题，提给美国未来可能的领袖们，包括奥巴马和他的挑战者：
1. 美国领导人会让美国重归政治改革之路吗？
自2008年金融危机，世界经济深陷萧条。正如国际货币基金组织前首席经济学家、现麻省理工学院教授西蒙•约翰逊（Simon Johnson）所指出：危机之源在于金融寡头绑架了美国政府。拯救美国经济的唯一出路是拆分金融寡头。美联储前主席、奥巴马前经济顾问保罗•沃尔克（Paul Volcker）也建议拆分金融寡头。但是我们只见到奥巴马政府给金融巨头们注资一万多亿美元，却未见任何对危机制造者的惩罚措施。
美国领导人敢挺直腰板面对阻碍金融与政治改革的强大利益集团吗？他们包括金融寡头、军火工业集团、和跨国公司游说集团。还是像小布什那样，因为受过这些利益集团的好处而感激涕零？民主党和共和党的改革派们能在今年11月的党内选举中脱颖而出吗？
2. 美国领导人能实现“纠正预算失衡”之类的豪言壮语吗？
过去两年里，很多官方讲话都在号召把赤字财政的重心从社会福利和军事冒险开支向支持国内经济结构转型，以便为美国新的可持续经济增长奠定基础。但迄今为止，预算改革的现实和豪言壮语相去甚远。
3. 美国领导人能否为美国的印第安土著安排一套更为人性化的政策吗？
他们的人口从西方殖民者入侵北美之前的数千万持续锐减，如今已从美国的政治舞台上销声匿迹。
美国政府确实有勇气向二战时被投入集中营的日裔美国人道歉。然而对于修建了三分之二横贯北美大陆铁路的华工——不同于修建了三分之一铁路的爱尔兰籍劳工， 1882年至1965年的种族主义排华法案还排斥华工向美国移民——美国政府迟迟没有道歉。加拿大政府已经显示除了政治勇气，向华裔加拿大人道歉和赔偿。美国政府是否也有勇气面对他们在历史上欠下的人权债务？
4.美国领导人真能管住那些好战势力吗？
他们正在中国周边部署军事力量，把美国的霸权推向战争边缘。他们的意图是统治世界，在国际上横行霸道。
5. 美国领导人是否有足够自信，来放松对世界互联网基础系统和国际现金流的控制？
须知美国情报机构正是利用它们来干预任何国家、甚至他们的盟国的信息系统。
6. 美国人民能驾驭他们的领导人吗？
这些领导人自冷战时代起就显示出令人担忧的倾向：他们总是撇开联合国和国际法，在全世界发动入侵。
7.美国领导人能否少推行一些言过其实的外交政策？
在需要华盛顿采取切实行动的地方，我们只听到老生常谈的外交辞令。在这个危险的世界里，美国的辞令已经越来越不可信。尚能给人一线希望的是，奥巴马总统在2009年12月10日接受诺贝尔和平奖时做的演说。但问题是他对减少美国发动的战争和入侵，究竟做出了哪些历史性贡献？
8.美国领导人如何应对日益增长的来自非洲、中东、以及拉丁美洲国家的不满？
须知这些不满源于美国在能源、安全以及贸易上的帝国主义贪婪政策。
我们都知道美国以及其他西方强国人口只占世界人口的10%，但是却控制了世界上将近90%的资源，并且消耗世界上将近一半的能源。相比之下，中国人口比整个发达国家总和的两倍还多，却只消耗世界10% 的石油。今天，既然美国很有钱又深陷债务危机，为什么美国不按市场惯例出售资产偿还债务？或者与债权国达成债转股的协议？如此可以发展国际合作、处理金融危机，和平发展难道不比打贸易战好吗？
9.美国领导人能否在全球治理中扮演更积极而不是更消极、更难缠的角色？
美国的虚拟经济是美国实体经济的五十倍，是世界GDP的十倍，从美国流出的热钱引发了拉美、东亚、俄国、南欧以及美国自身的金融危机。美国是否要继续站在金融寡头一边，对抗20国首脑峰会上多数国家的要求？这些要求包括：全球变暖、国际金融监管以及制裁国际寡头的反垄断法。
美国的军事开支几乎占世界总军事开支的一半，比仅次于美国的前20名强国军事开支的总和还多。美国还是世界上第一个使用原子弹的国家。在中东、非洲、亚洲、和拉美的战争与军备竞赛中，美国扮演的角色究竟是矛盾化解者还是问题制造者？
10.美国领导人是否具有推进中美关系的战略远见？
当今世界，再没有比这两个国家的关系更重要的国际关系，然而当下的两国关系中弥漫着战略不信任。要改善两国关系就需要中国领导人——以及美国领导人信守诺言，推动两个大国间的战略互信。
历史上，中美两国并无地缘政治冲突，唯一的问题是台湾。要消除中美之间的不信任，有一个简单的方案：就是废止《台湾关系法》，以此换取两国在太平洋地区和其他世界事务上的合作。美国在内战期间并没有要求法国来做仲裁者。同理，台湾海峡两岸的中国人也不需要美国来监管中国的和平统一。美国现行政策为中国的和平发展与统一制造的麻烦远多于化解。
我相信多数美国商人和州长们都想抓住中国开放的市场机遇，并与中国人民成为朋友。只有少数冷战老兵还在犹豫着要不要睁开眼面对急剧变化的世界。
这样也无所谓。中国人一向有耐心。我们用109年的时间才从西方强权手中赢回国家独立。人民共和国用了21年时间重返联合国的合法席位；用15年的时间谈判加入WTO。已有2200年统一历史的中国，有足够的信心等待美国领袖最终接受一个简单的现实：即美国需要中国、就和中国需要美国一样，谁让我们同住在一个小小的地球村！
习的访问不可能为这十个问题给出所有答案，而时间也会证明美国是能最终拥有一个在其内政外交上都赞成并推动积极变化的“改革型”领导人，还是不过又选出一个在政策上碌碌无为的政治秀客。
陈平博士，春秋综合研究院研究员，北京大学国家发展研究院教授，上海复旦大学新政治经济学研究中心高级研究员。德克萨斯大学奥斯汀校区物理学博士，研究经济周期和经济混沌。 导师普里戈金 (Ilya Prigogine) 教授是1977年诺贝尔化学奖获得者，非平衡态统计物理与耗散结构理论奠基人。
【英文】
Ten Questions for America’s Leader Presumptive
By Ping Chen
I am surprised by the New York Time Op-Ed “Ten Questions for China’s Heir Presumptive” by David Shambaugh, published on Feb.10, 2012, on the eve of China’s Vice President Xi Jinping’s visit to the United States.
As a China expert, Prof. Shambaugh at Georgetown University certainly knows the minimum international curtsey for high level exchanges. But it is not this time for me or even the New York Time editors to dwell on this issue. As a Chinese saying goes“It is impolite not to reciprocate （来而不往非礼也）,” I would like to raise ten questions here in the similar tune of David Shambaugh. I would apologize in advance if my questions are somewhat provocative to some American readers. American media always lecture the world since the end of WWII that the US President is legitimate through election, but people around the world are deeply skeptical about the courage and wisdom of American leaders in dealing with world affairs and regional peace about their self-appointed role as world judges and police. This will be a good opportunity for Chinese people to familiarize with America and vice versa. As American policy inconsistency is well known in the United States, but not quite clear in China and other Asian countries.
Here are 10 questions America observers would like to know about the leaders of the United States, including the President Obama and his Republic challengers:
•1. Will American leaders return to a politically reformist path for the American political system?
Since 2008 financial crisis, the world economy had been dragged into a recession. As Simon Johnson, the former IMF Chief Economist and now a MIT professor, pointed out: the root cause was financial oligarchs who captured the American government. The only way to save American economy is to break-up financial oligarchs. Paul Volcker, the Former Chair of Federal Reserve and former economic advisor to President Obama, also suggested the breaking-up of financial oligarchs. However, we only see the Obama administration injecting 1 trillion dollars into financial giants, but without doing anything to discipline crisis creators.
Can American leader stand up to the powerful interest groups that have blocked financial and political reforms — the financial oligarchs, the military-industry complex, the lobby groups for large multi-national enterprises — or will he be beholden to them, as George W. Bush has been? Will any reformers in both Democrat and Republican be elected to top leader positions at the coming election in November?
• 2. Can the American leaders turn the rhetoric of budget “rebalancing” into reality?
Many official speeches have been made over the past two years calling for a reorientation of the deficit budget away from the entitlement and the military adventure to domestic restructuring as the basis for a new and more sustainable growth model for the United States. To date the reality of budget reform has not matched the rhetoric. •3. Will American leader be able to devise a more humane policy toward Native American Indians, when their population had steadily dropped from tens of millions before Western colonists invaded the North America and now has disappeared from America’s political stage?
American government did have some courage to apologize to Japanese American citizens who were put in concentration camp during the world war two. However, American government owes an apology to Chinese Americans who built two thirds of transcontinental railway, but unlike Irish workers, Chinese immigrants were barred by the racist Chinese Exclusion Act from 1882 to 1965. As the Canadian government has political courage to offer an apology and some compensation, will American leaders have the similar courage to face their historical debt in human rights?
•4. Can American leaders reign in the hegemonies that are pushing the American power to the edge of war on China’s neighbors, to “dominating” the world and behaving aggressively internationally?
• 5. Will American leaders be sufficiently confident to all the relaxation of tightened controls on world internet infrastructure and international financial flow so that American intelligence apparatus could manipulate any country’s information system at any time including their allies?
•6. Can the American people reign in their leaders, which have demonstrated a worrisome tendency since the cold war to undertake invasions around the world, act independently of United Nations and international laws?
7. Will American leaders conduct a foreign policy that is more about substance than rhetoric?
America’s diplomatic platitudes have become increasingly incredulous in a dangerous world where real action is needed from Washington. One hopeful indicator in this regard is a speech President Obama gave at the Nobel Peace Prize Forum on Dec.10, 2009. Did he make any historical contribution to make less America-led wars and invasions?
•8. How American leaders handle the growing discontent across Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America over America’s rapacious and imperialist energy, security and trade policies?
We know American and other western powers have only 10 percent of the world population, but control near 90 percent of resources, and consume near half of produced energy. Now, the US is rich but deep in the debt. Why could the US simply follow the market convention to sell your assets to pay the debt or reach agreement for a debt-equity swap and international cooperation in financial crisis and peaceful development?
•9. Will the American leaders begin to take more active and less passive, more supportive and less obstructionist, roles in global governance?
American virtual economy is ten times the world GDP and near fifty times of the US real economy. The US originated hot money ignited financial crisis in Latin America, East Asia, Russia, Southern Europe and the US itself. Will US continue to stand with financial oligarchs in the G20 meeting against the majority of other nations on issues like global warming, international financial regulation, and anti-trust law against international oligarchs? American’s military budget is near half of the world and more than the next top 20 nations combined. The United State was also the first nation to use the atomic bomb. Will US become part of solution instead of part of the problem in the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and Latin America in preventing war and arm race?
•10. Will American leaders have the strategic foresight to invest in advancing the relationship with China?
There is no more important relationship for either country in the world today, yet strategic mistrust permeates the current relationship. Advancing the relationship requires the active engagement of China’s leaders — and the American leaders — to build strategic trust between the two great nations.
Historically, China and the US have no geopolitical conflicts except the Taiwan issue. To remove the mistrust between China and United States, there is a simple solution: to abolish the Taiwan Relation Act in exchange for economic cooperation in Pacific and world affairs. The United States did not ask France to be a broker during American Civil War. By the same token, Chinese people on the both sides of Taiwan Straits do not need American supervision for China’s peaceful unification. The US policy is more a problem than a solution in China’s peaceful development and unification.
I believe that most of American businessmen and state governors would love to participate in the open Chinese market and make friends with Chinese people. Only a few cold war veterans are reluctant to open their mind to a changing world.
That is o.k. We Chinese people have patience. We fought a hundred year war to regain China’s independence from West Powers. People’s Republic waited 21 years to return to the United Nations, and joined WTO through 15 year negotiation. Based on the 2200 year history of a united China, we have confidence to wait until American leaders finally realize that the United States needs China as much as China needs the United States, since we all live in the same small village of the earth.
As Xi’s visit is not likely to get all the answers to these 10 questions, time will tell if the United States finally has a “transformational” leader who embraces and shapes positive changes for America at home and abroad, or whether America just elect another risk-averse showman in American politics.
Dr.Ping Chen, is the Professor at National School of Development, Peking University in Beijing and Senior Fellow at Center for New Political Economy at Fudan University in Shanghai, China. He got Ph.D. in physics at University of Texas at Austin by study of business cycles and economic chaos.
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