莫汉·古鲁斯瓦米：要啥高铁，先升级眼下的铁路系统吧

【12月中旬，日本首相安倍访印，拿下印度首个高铁订单。上台来一直积极搞建设的莫迪甚至表示，希望“这项工程将在印度铁路系统掀起一场革命，将加快印度走向未来的进程。”然而看看眼下印度的铁路系统吧：庞大、朽旧、残破，印度铁路系统几乎不赚钱，自我维持都难，更谈不上用于现代化改造和提升安全水准的新增投资了。相比这些，印度真的需要一条高铁吗？

12月17日，BBC网站发表印度著名经济和政治评论家莫汉·古鲁斯瓦米（Mohan Guruswamy）的评论文章，题为《印度需要高铁吗？》。微信公众号“毛四维的印度观察”（maosiwei_china）全文翻译，供读者参考。】

上周，印度总理纳兰德拉·莫迪的内阁批准了一项高铁计划，造价147亿美元，全长650公里，连接印度西部城市孟买和艾哈迈达巴德，旅行时间将由8小时缩短至2小时。

莫迪先生说：“这项工程将在印度铁路系统掀起一场革命，将加快印度走向未来的进程。这将成为印度经济转变的一个引擎。”

但会是这样吗？

的确，印人党（BJP）在2014年4月的竞选宣言中许诺要兴建5,846公里的“高铁网”，以连接德里、金奈、加尔各答和孟买。有意思是的，这个许诺并不包括莫迪先生的家乡古吉拉特邦的首府艾哈迈达巴德。

印度铁路的残破是出了名的

朽旧的基础设施

印度铁路是世界上第三大铁路系统。1853年4月16日，第一列旅客列车（14节车厢，载客约400人）从孟买站开出，距今已有年头了。

印度铁路恰是这个国家庞大、朽旧、残破的基础设施的典型写照。

从根上说，印度铁路系统几乎不赚钱，自我维持都难，更谈不上用于现代化改造和提升安全水准的新增投资了。

资金短缺主要由于客运长年亏损，去年就亏损50亿美元。而整个铁路系统的盈余仅为1.15亿美元。

铁路上层管理人员经常提醒存在危机。

一位高官说，“说到底，这个组织的运行在于是否盈利。除非我们能控制支出，可持续地增加收入，否则，这个组织的生存就是个问题。”

但铁路系统每年依靠政府大笔资金来维持运转，不断推后所需的重要投资。

比如，增补与安全相关的岗位，包括轨道维护工和信号管理工，这样重要的决定也一拖再拖。

其结果是铁路事故和死亡的数字不断增加。

自2000年以来共发生89起重大事故，其中几乎三分之二是2010年以来发生的。

据估计，全国每年因穿越轨道而死亡的人数几乎为1.5万人，仅繁忙的孟买郊区铁路系统就高达6,000人。

挑战

根据政府统计，去年全国共发生28,360起铁路事故，造成2.5万多人死亡，3,882人受伤。

挑战已存在多年。

2012年，一个政府委员会说，轨道和桥梁的状况堪忧，并提出以下几项建议：

对现有1.9万公里的铁路进行现代化改造，这相当于整个铁路网的40%，全部运输量的80%；

消除平面交叉路口，沿路建围栏。通过建高架和地下通道以消除平面路口；

对11,250座桥梁进行加固，以满足列车重载高速通过的要求，并指出，13.1万座铁路桥中有四分之一桥龄在百年以上；

在主要路段全部实行轨道的机械养护，提高铺轨和维护的水准。

为此需要1,300亿美元的预算。但无论是政府还是铁路系统都无力凑起哪怕是个零头。

难道不应该专注于对整个系统进行现代化升级改造？

因此，问题必然是，连接孟买和艾哈迈达巴德的高铁能解决任何这些问题吗？

表面上看，日本报价非常有吸引力。

日本将提供孟买-艾哈迈达巴德高铁造价的80%，其条件是印度从日本公司购买30%的设备，包括车厢和机车。在今后，70-80%的设备可以在印度生产。

消息来源说，日本政府提供低价贷款，技术支持，并将推动一定年限里在印本地生产和技术转让。这些条件不可谓不优惠。

问题

但问题挥之不去。

这是否就是最具有竞争力的报价？政府是否考虑并邀请过其他的竞标者？日本人将从这个项目中获取多少？

竞标的目的就是为了免除这些问题。但应有的步骤被绕过了。

最后，一个无法回避的大问题是，如果同样的投资用于整个铁路系统的升级改造，是否将比用于一个高造价项目在经济上更合算？

印度的劳动大军每个月要增加100万年轻人。与单个资本和进口密集型的项目相比，对整个系统进行改造将能创造多得多的新工作岗位，这应该是没有争论的。

那么，建高铁符合莫迪总理所希望的“将成为印度经济转变的一个引擎”？

印度铁路系统统计：

●每天运行1.9万趟列车，其中1.2万为旅客列车，7,000为货运列车。

●每天运送2,300万旅客。

●每天运输265万吨货物。

●年收入约200亿美元。

●拥有7,083个火车站，131,205座铁路桥。

●拥有51,030节旅客车厢，219,931节货车车皮。

●雇员总数达136万人。

（翻页查看英文全文）

Viewpoint:Does India need bullet trains?

17 December 2015

From the section India

Indiahas agreed to buy a high-speed bullet train from Japan, in an attempt totransform its creaking rail system. Mohan Guruswamy wonders whether it makessense.

Last week Indian Prime Minister NarendraModi’s cabinet cleared a $14.7bn (£9.6bn), 650km (403 miles) long bullet trainsystem linking the western Indian cities of Mumbai and Ahmedabad, which willcut travel time on the route from eight hours to two.

“This enterprise will launch arevolution in Indian railways and speed up India’s journey into the future. Itwill become an engine of economic transformation in India,” Mr Modi said.

But will it?

To be sure the BJP’s election manifestoreleased in April 2014 promised a 5,846km (3632 miles) “high speed trainnetwork (bullet train)” linking Delhi, Chennai (Madras), Kolkata(Calcutta) and Mumbai. Interestingly, it didn’t include Ahmedabad, the capitalof Mr Modi’s native state, Gujarat.

Creakyinfrastructure

Indian Railways is the third largestrailway network in the world. It has come a long way since its first passengertrain service began on 16th April 1853, when 14 carriages carrying about 400guests left Bori Bunder in Mumbai.

More than anything, the railways typifiesthe vast, creaking and dilapidated nature of the country’s infrastructure.

At the root of this is that the railwayshardly earns enough to pay for itself, let alone invest in modernisation andsafety.

It is cash strapped mainly due to therecurring losses - last year it lost $5bn - in the passenger segment of itsoperations. The network has surplus cash of only $115m.

Its top managers have frequently warnedabout the crisis.

A top official said: ‘In the finalanalysis, the performance of the organisation would be just at the bottom lineand unless we are in a position to control the expenditure and increase theearnings on a sustained basis, survival for the organisation becomes a verydifficult proposition."

But the railways get by every year withhuge dollops of government funding and increasingly by postponing vitalinvestments.

For instance important decisions such asthe filling of tens of thousands of safety-related posts, including trackmaintenance and signalling workers, keep getting postponed.

The consequences of this are seen in theincreasing number of railways related accidents and deaths.

Since 2000 there have been 89 majoraccidents - almost two thirds of them since 2010.

It is estimated is that almost 15,000people die crossing the tracks every year - some 6,000 on the busy Mumbaisuburban network alone.

Challenge

Last year, according to the government,more than 25,000 people died and 3,882 were injured in 28,360 railway accidentsacross the country.

The challenge has been clear for manyyears.

In 2012 a government committee said thecondition of the tracks and bridges was a cause of concern and made severalrecommendations:

●Modernise 19,000km (11,806 miles) ofexisting tracks comprising nearly 40% of the total network and carrying about80% of the traffic.

●Eliminate level crossings and provide fencingalongside tracks. To eliminate level crossings by building rail over and underbridges.

●Strengthen 11,250 bridges to sustain higher loads athigher speeds, noting that about a quarter of out of 131,000 bridges are over100 years old.

●Provide 100% mechanised track maintenance on the mainroutes to provide for superior quality of track laying and maintenance.

But neither the railways nor the governmenthas so far been able to rustle up even a fraction of the $130bn outlay forthis.

Shouldn’t the focus be on modernising andupgrading the entire system?

The question therefore must be, how does abullet train joining Mumbai and Ahmedabad address any of these urgent needs?

On the face of it the Japanese offer isvery attractive.

Japan has offered to meet 80% of theMumbai-Ahmedabad project cost, on the condition that India buys 30% of its equipmentincluding coaches and locomotives from Japanese firms. In the coming years, upto 70-80% of the components could be manufactured in India.

The Japanese government has offered cheaploans, technical support and is willing to drive the local manufacturing andtechnology transfer initiative within a specified period, said sources. Theseterms cannot be scoffed at.

Questions

But questions will persist.

Can this be the most competitive offer? Didthe government even consider or invite other offers? How much are the Japanesegoing to make out of this?

The purpose of competitive offers is toeliminate all these. But this due process was given a go by.

Finally, the big question that will not goaway is whether the same investment on upgrading the entire railway networkwould be more economically beneficial than a single high cost project?

India adds a million young people to itswork force every month. There is little disagreement that revamping the entirenetwork would entail the creation of many more new jobs than a single capitaland import intensive project.

How does this tie in with Prime MinisterModi’s hope that “it will become an engine of economic transformation inIndia?”

Mohan Guruswamy is an economic andpolitical analyst

Indian Railways

●Operates 19,000 trains every day,comprising 12,000 passenger trains and 7,000 freight trains

●Transports 23 million passengers every day

●Carries 2.65 million tonnes of freight every day

●Earns about $20bn annually

●Owns 7,083 railway stations and 131,205 railwaybridges

●Runs 51,030 passenger coaches and 219,931 freight cars

●Employs 1.36 million people.