傅莹德国《明镜》刊文：朝核问题还有和平解决的希望吗？

【文/观察者网专栏作者 傅莹】

（本文德语版同时刊载于德国《明镜周刊》2017年第51期）

2017年以来，朝鲜第六次核试验和多次洲际弹道导弹试射之后，美国越来越担心朝谋求核打击美本土能力逼近“临界点”，加大武力威慑和战争恫吓，升级经济制裁，而联合国安理会决议中屡次提及的和平谈判却继续空悬。朝核危机升温，成为重大安全挑战。朝核问题还有和平解决的希望吗？

自2006年朝鲜进行第一次核试验以来，联合国安理会已经通过了9个涉议，至第2375号决议，朝鲜90%的外贸都遭禁止。据估算，2018年朝鲜对外贸易额可能降至约20亿美元，退回到上世纪90年代末的水平。根据联合国制裁决议，朝鲜每年进口石油不能超过400万桶，相当于中国日进口量的一半。与此同时，美国及其盟友不断施加单边制裁，“长臂管辖”吓退了国际上与朝几乎所有的金融、投资、服务等交往。

这些措施使朝鲜陷入极度困难，但并没能阻止其核导计划，反而不断强化其紧迫感。朝更加一意孤行并一再刻意“展示”其在核弹头小型化和弹道导弹技术方面的进步，完全无视国际社会的压力和呼声。

朝鲜最高领导人金正恩正在观看火箭发射（图片来源：明镜周刊）

朝鲜经济似乎不比过去更糟多少，在过去两年大约增长1%，2016年粮食增产7%，达到481万吨，取得上世纪90年代中期以来的最好收成，加上外界人道主义粮援，基本满足人民最低需求。

为何十年制裁没有达到迫使朝鲜放弃核计划的目标呢？原因很多，简言之，对朝鲜而言，此事涉及到国家安全，自认为没有其他可靠的选择。而美国及其盟友的政策目标分散，不是聚焦核问题，而是将关注的重心放在了朝鲜内政问题上，以为朝政权将在制裁的压力下垮台。和平谈判的任何妥协都被视为支撑了这个政权。

现在朝核问题已处于危险阶段，犹如驰入一条黑暗隧道的火车。地区安全和国际核不扩散机制的信誉面临严峻挑战。隧道的尽头恐怕不是问题的结束，而是新麻烦的开始。

出路何在？鉴于导致朝核问题的根源是半岛的敌对状况，美国作为关键当事方，应着力于解扣而非一味刺激对立情绪。在施压和制裁的同时应给予朝鲜其他的生存出路，包括启动和平谈判，做出必要的外交妥协，认真考虑朝鲜的安全诉求。

美国一直把军事打击作为一个选项来讲，实际上问题拖至今日就说明，军事手段代价高昂，后果难以估量和控制，美国很难下战争的决心。然而，美国军事威胁的姿态和关于战争的喧嚣，成功地恐吓了朝鲜，使得朝坚信寻求加快发展核计划是其自保的唯一出路。这就导致了今天这种令人两难困境，难道美国要继续自欺欺人地拖下去？

在中方看来，制裁是必要的手段，但只有当和谈的大门打开时才能有效果，正如中国外长王毅指出的，实施制裁与促谈应该同步推进。

需要注意的是，现阶段核问题现状和谈判基点已远远脱离2003年启动六方会谈时的原点。但不管怎样，需要抓紧时间了，拖下去代价只会更大。

当地时间2017年12月15日，美国纽约，联合国安理会15日就朝鲜半岛问题召开部长级会议。联合国秘书长和中国、瑞典、俄罗斯等国代表纷纷呼吁有关各方尽快恢复对话谈判，推动实现朝鲜半岛无核化和可持续和平。（@视觉中国）

美国应合理调整自己的政策目标和手段，争取让事态走向和平解决的轨道。中方提出了“双暂停”建议，也即朝鲜暂停核导试验，美韩暂停大规模军演，就是希望在当前困难局势下争取给和平一个机会。

中美协调至关重要。特朗普总统执政以来，中美关系进入良性发展的轨道。在涉及双边关系的问题上，中美能够妥善处理，避免碰撞。但更大的考验是，两个大国能否真心协作应对国际难题，这要求双方建立更高水平和更加稳定的战略互信。

今年11月特朗普总统访华期间，习近平主席全面阐述了中方在朝核问题上的立场。双方同意致力于维护国际核不扩散体系，重申致力于实现半岛无核化目标，不承认朝鲜拥核国地位。

双方同意继续通过执行联合国安理会各项涉朝决议，对朝核导活动保持压力，同时推动通过对话谈判和平解决问题，解决各方合理关切。双方同意就下步半岛形势发展及中美应采取的措施保持沟通。

不可否认的是，中美也存在分歧。一是中方不认可军事手段。二是中方视制裁是推动和谈的手段,主张聚焦核问题。三是中方反对美国及其盟友部署“萨德”等损害中国安全利益的行为。

中国严格地执行了联合国有关制裁措施。例如今年2月以来，中方机构连续发出公告，对自朝进口煤、铁、铁矿石、铅、铅矿石、水海产品、纺织品和对朝出口凝析油、液化天然气、精炼石油产品采取了禁止或限制措施，关闭朝鲜实体或个人在中国境内设立的合资合作企业以及中国企业在境外与朝鲜实体或个人设立的合资合作企业，也要求全国金融行业对朝方有关个人、实体开展回溯性审查。

这些措施不是没有代价的。许多中国企业在对朝制裁中蒙受大量损失。制裁也使得中朝关系受到伤害。

中国坚持半岛无核化立场，坚决维护国际核不扩散体制，坚定致力于维护朝鲜半岛和平稳定。中方将继续履行自己的国际义务，保持与美国、俄罗斯、韩国及其他相关各方的紧密协调合作。

朝核问题凸显在东北亚构建新秩序观的必要性。中国致力于构建新型国际关系与人类命运共同体，这为推动半岛的共同安全提供了新的思路。

中方不愿看到朝鲜半岛生战、生乱、生核污染、生难民潮。战争一旦开启，没有赢家。我们需要以新的视角看待东北亚的安全与秩序，认识到我们的未来命运与共。

美国及其盟友在半岛安全上如果继续秉持零和思维，只考虑自己的利益，不给对方生存和发展的机会，那么恐怕永远无法理解妥协的必要性。

和平解决朝核问题的窗口还未完全关闭，目前的危机应被转化为机遇。对朝施压应以更加聪明的方式进行，既要采取多种手段综合有效施压，也要有真诚的谈判建议，包括视朝鲜为平等的主权国家，合理考虑朝鲜的安全与发展关切。

而朝鲜也需要冷静认识当前形势，抓住时机重新回到谈判的道路上来。最近有一些新的动向，朝鲜和美国都在释放一些愿意和谈的信号，只要能谈起来，就有利于避免战争，就有可能找到一条不至于皆输的出路。希望各方都做出一切可能的努力，争取走出这条“黑暗隧道”，进而最终在本地区构建一个更具包容性的安全秩序架构，以使所有国家的安全需求都得到合理保障。

（翻页为本文英文版）

North Korea’s sixth nuclear test and multiple ICBM launches in 2017 have led to rising concern in the US that it’s approaching the threshold of being capable of nuclear attacks on the US mainland. The US wants to exert greater military intimidation and economic sanctions on North Korea. Meanwhile, there is no peace talks, which every UN Security Council resolution called for. The Korean nuclear crisis has turned into a major security challenge. Is there still hope of peaceful settlement ?

Since 2006 when North Korea made the first nuclear test, the UN Security Council has adopted 9 resolutions on sanctions, with the latest Resolution 2375, banning 90% of its trade which is estimated to fall to around US$2 billion in 2018, about the level of the late 1990s. In addition, the US and its allies have imposed unilateral sanctions to deter any financial, investment and services exchanges from the outside world.

These measures have put North Korea in a very difficult situation, yet failed to stop its nuclear and missile programs. Instead North Korea is more determined and by deliberately showcasing its progress in nuclear warhead miniaturization and ballistic missile technologies, it’s defying all pressures and calls of the outside world.

North Korea’s economy isn’t much worse off than before growing by around 1% in the previous two years, and its grain output grew by 7%, reaching 4.81 million tons in 2016, the highest since the mid-1990s. Plus the humanitarian assistance, it can meet people’s minimum needs.

Why over a decade of sanctions failed to force North Korea to comply? There can be a long list of reasons. For North Korea, this is a national security matter and there is no convincing alternative. On the part of the US and its allies, they are often distracted from the nuclear issue, paying more attention to North Korea’s domestic wrongdoings and even grew into the belief that the regime would collapse under tough sanctions. Any compromise in peace talks would be regarded as condoning the regime.

The Korean nuclear issue has now entered a dangerous stage like a fast train in a dark tunnel. The stake is high for the security of the region and for the credibility of the non-proliferation regime. When reaching the end of the tunnel, one may not see the end of the problem but the beginning of more troubles.

Is there a way out? Since the root cause is hostility on the Peninsula the US, which is a key party, should try to ease instead of heightening the hostility. While imposing pressure and sanctions, it needs to leave an opening to North Korea by launching peace talks, offering necessary diplomatic compromises and seriously considering North Korea’s security appeals.

The US likes to talk about military option, but the fact that it has allow the issue to drag on for so long indicates that a decision on war is very hard given potential cost and unpredictable consequences. But its act of threat and rhetoric of war has successfully scared North Korea into the belief that achieving nuclear capabilities is the only way of self-protection. Facing today’s dilemma, does the US want to continue deceiving itself and keep dragging on?

For China, sanctions are necessary but they would work only when the door to peace talks is open. As pointed out by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, applying sanctions and facilitating talks should proceed simultaneously.

The US should adjust its policy objective and try to bring the situation to peaceful track. China has proposed the “suspension for suspension” initiative, i.e. North Korea suspending nuclear and missile tests and the US and South Korea suspending large-scale military exercises, to give peace talks a chance.

China-US coordination is essential. Since President Trump took office, the relationship between China and the US has been on a normal track. The two countries have demonstrated willingness to handle bilateral issues and avoid collision. A bigger test is whether they can truly coordinate to handle international challenges, which requires deeper and more stable strategic trust.

During President Trump’s visit to China last November, Chinese President Xi Jinping gave him a full account of China’s position on this issue. The two sides expressed commitment to the international non-proliferation regime, and denuclearization on the Peninsula. Neither side would recognize North Korea as a nuclear weapon state.

They agreed to keep pressure on North Korea’s nuclear and missile activities by implementing the UN Security Council resolutions. They are also committed to resorting to dialogue and negotiations to resolve the issue peacefully and address the legitimate concerns of all parties. The two sides agreed to stay in close touch and update each other on the measures that they would take.

Admittedly, there are differences. First, China disapproves military solution. Second, China views sanctions as means to advance peace talks and prefers to focus on the nuclear issue. Third, China opposes any moves by the US and its allies to undermine China’s security interests, i.e. THAAD deployment.

China has faithfully implemented the UN sanctions. For example, since last February, Chinese institutions have banned or restricted imports of coal, iron and lead as well as their ores, and textiles from North Korea and exports of condensed oil and refined oil products to it. No joint ventures are allowed with North Korean entities or individuals. Chinese financial authorities will conduct retroactive investigations into relevant North Korean individuals and entities.

These steps are not without cost. Many Chinese companies suffered huge lost. Sanctions have also damaged China’s relations with North Korea.

China is firmly committed to denuclearization, peace and stability on the Peninsula and will carry out its international obligations and engage in close coordination with the US as well as Russia, ROK and other countries.

The Korean nuclear issue calls for reflections on a new order in Northeast Asia. China’s diplomatic objectives include building a community with a shared future for mankind. This provides new philosophical thinking for achieving common security on the Peninsula.

China doesn’t want to see war, chaos, nuclear pollution, or a refugee wave on the Peninsula. An outbreak of war makes no winner. We need to take a fresh look and new approach to security and the order in Northeast Asia and realize that our future is tied together.

If the US and its allies refuse to “live and let live”, they may never see the need for compromise.

The window for peaceful settlement isn’t completely closed and the current crisis should be turned to an opportunity. Pressure should be applied in a comprehensive and smart way, accompanied with sincere offer for talks, taking North Korea as an equal sovereign state and addressing its concern for security and development.

North Korea should also view the current situation in a sober way and seize the opportunity to return to talks. There have been some new development lately as signals for talks are being sent out both from North Korea and from the US. Should the peace talks start, there would be hope for avoiding war and finding the pathway towards a solution instead of everyone losing out. It takes all parties’ sincere efforts should we want to come out of the dark tunnel. In doing so, we may ultimately build an all-inclusive security architecture in the region, in which every country’s security is ensured.

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