印度经济5年超越中国？外国网友打脸经济学家..._风闻

回顾2019年，无论是发达经济体还是发展中国家，经济增速整体都出现了不同程度的下滑——财政赤字创新高，债务总量不断上涨、利率倒挂、投资和出口增长疲软。

按照IMF（国际货币基金组织）的预测，2019年全球GDP总量预计上升为86.6万亿美元，中国经济总量或为14.14万亿美元，约为全球总量的16.33%，继续是全球第二大经济体；日本的2019年GDP预计为5.15万亿美元，全球占比约为5.95%；预计印度的GDP为2.9万亿美元左右，全球占比约为3.35%。

整体来看，2019年中国、日本、印度经济占全球的比例大体稳定或略有提升。但印度的经济增速却不是很理想——2018年还高达7%，但在2019年预计可能仅实际增长4.9%甚至更低….

然而，就是在这样的情形下，以英美、印度等国金融界为代表的不少经济学家，依旧笃定印度的经济增长，将在五年内超越中国!

1、Steve Lee

I love how “most economists” (meaning they are westerners, or non-westerners who work primarily in the west or for western institutions) make such a vague statement to protect their reputations in case their prediction does not come to fruition. Economy is a discipline that looks good on the surface but mostly fails in practice. I envy the position of economists. They can call themselves experts and enjoy the prestige that comes with it by being wrong a lot of times.

我喜欢“大多数经济学家”（意思是他们是西方人，或主要在西方工作或为西方机构工作的非西方人）如何含糊其辞地声明，以保护他们的声誉，以防他们的预测没有结果。经济是一门表面上看起来不错，但实际上却大多失败的学科。我羡慕经济学家的地位。他们可以称自己为专家，并享受与之相伴的威望，以及多次准许错误的权利

The dearth of respondents of Chinese ancestry shows the lack of interests of Chinese people in this topic. Chinese are not concerned at all if India would surpass China. 

中国血统受访者的缺乏，说明中国人对这个话题缺乏兴趣。中国人根本不担心印度是否会超过中国。

2、Victor Tan

I wonder why are Indians so obsessed nowadays to talk about India surpassing China rather than aspiring to surpass the US?

我想知道为什么印度人现在如此痴迷于谈论印度超越中国而不是渴望超越美国？

These flashy tables and statistics while making arguments look compelling is a pcs of waffle with very little meaning and has ignored the fundamental problems that impede Indian’s development.

这些华而不实的表格和统计数据虽然让人觉得论点很有说服力，但却只是一堆毫无意义的华夫饼，忽视了阻碍印度发展的根本问题。

India as it is today was a creation of british colonialism. It is so diverse and does not have a common lineage nor langauage, rendering impossible for any Indian leader to address this so called world biggest democracy in Hindi or any other language and be understood by the entire nation.

今天的印度是英国殖皿煮义的产物。它是如此的多样化，没有共同的血统和语言，使得任何印度领导人都不可能用印地语或任何其他语言来表达这个所谓的世界最大的皿煮，并被整个民族所理解。

China, despite also experiencing diversity (to a lesser extent compared to India as it is predorminatly Han people) was already a unified country with common language since Qin Shih Huang Di (the emperor known for building the great wall of China) emerged as its ruler more than 2 thousand years ago.

中国，尽管也经历了多样性（与印度相比，其程度要小一些，因为它是先于汉族的）自从两千多年前秦始皇（以修建中国长城而闻名的皇帝）成为其统治者以来，已经是一个统一的、有共同语言的国家。

What makes a nation great hinges on its population composition.

一个国家的伟大取决于它的人口构成。

The caste system (though may have been constitutionally outlawed during the days of mahatma Gandhi) remained deeply entrenched in Indian’s society. This adversely impede the diaspora of the smartest or brightest genes within Indian society.

种姓制度（尽管在圣雄甘地时代可能在宪法上是非法的）在印度社会中仍然根深蒂固。这对印度社会中最聪明或最聪明的基因的散居造成了不利影响。

The Indian smartest and brightest often seek greener pastures outside India (like the Silicon Valley or Wall Street). Conversely it is also true the world brightest would chose not to come to India.

印度最聪明的人经常在印度以外寻找更绿色的牧场（比如硅谷或华尔街）。相反，世界上最聪明的人也会选择不来印度。

This explains why US despite only having around a third of either India or Chinese population remains world super power till date.

这就解释了为什么美国尽管只有大约三分之一的印度或中国人口，到目前为止仍然是世界超级大国。

Being the world most populous country in time to come means nothing if birth of duds remains uncontrolled.

在未来的时间里成为世界上人口最多的国家，如果哑弹的诞生仍然无法控制，那就意味着什么。

In essence you need quality population to generate quality growth.

本质上，你需要高质量的人口来产生高质量的增长。

3、Dr. sang

China being the most populous nation since history of mankind did not make them perpetual superpower. The humuliation by more industrious (smaller) countries (notably Great Britain) for more than one and a half century since 1840 opium wars can attest.

中国是人类有史以来人口最多的国家，这并没有使他们成为永久的超级大国。自1840年鸦片战争以来，更加勤劳（较小）的国家（尤其是英国）的腐殖质化已经持续了一个半世纪，这一点可以证明。

Indian society in many facets remains extremely left skewed till this day compared to Chinese society.

与中国社会相比，印度社会在许多方面直到今天仍极为偏斜。

India has never eclipsed china historically. For the above reasons I put forward, it never will.

印度历史上从未超越过中国。基于上述原因，我提出，它永远不会。

India will understandably find this painful truth hard to stomach and will continue to defy whatever the odds are.

可以理解的是，印度将难以接受这一痛苦的事实，并将继续无视任何可能性。

4、Palanisamy S, Proprietor 

why is this obsession with China economy? This is a theory propagated by western media. Why should India compete with China why not USA?

为什么对中国经济如此痴迷？这是西方媒体传播的一种理论。印度为什么要和中国竞争，为什么不和美国竞争？

Are the wars between china and India main reasons? Then India should compete with the combined economies of Britain, Australia, Canada and New Zealand as the whites of these economies grew at the abuse of indian economy.

中印竞争是主要原因吗？然后，印度应该与英国、澳大利亚、加拿大和新西兰的合并经济体竞争，因为这些经济体中的白人想要利用印度经济增长（离间）。

Historical India and China relations are good. Religiously and philosophically China and India have same understandings. Only Chinese and east Asians can understand us. So stop this unwanted obsession with China. There are more good things will happen if we have good relationship with China and east Asians(including south east Asian).

印中关系历史悠久。在宗教和哲学上，中国和印度有着相同的理解。只有中国人和东亚人才能理解我们。所以，停止对中国的这种不必要的痴迷。如果我们与中国和东亚（包括东南亚）保持良好关系，将会有更多的好事发生。

If China, India, Japan and asean becomes like NATO, then we constitute largest population, economic, military blocks without any challenges. This should be our century. American and European will become immaterial to us.

如果中国、印度、日本和东盟像北约一样，那么我们就构成了人口最多、经济最多、军事最多的国家，没有任何挑战。这应该是我们的世纪。美国和欧洲对我们来说将变得无关紧要。

5、T.A. Aadithya

Population.The one major factor. India adds about 20 million people an year to its population. China adds about 6 million every year owing to its one child policy. So by 2023 India is poised to become the most populated country in the world. By 2050 , there will be 1.6 billion Indians, while China’s population will shrink. The more the people, the more GDP is generated assuming the Indian govt pulls it’s shit together. Although still poor by world standard , India’s sheer population makes it the third largest economy by purchasing power.

人口，一个主要因素。印度每年新增人口约2000万。中国每年新增约600万人。因此，到2023年，印度将成为世界上人口最多的国家。到2050年，印度人口将达到16亿，而中国人口将减少。人口越多，如果印度政府把它拉到一起的话，产生的GDP就越多。尽管按世界标准来看仍然贫穷，但印度的人口数量之多，使其成为第三大购买力经济体。

The other factor . India has a young population. The average Chinese is a decade older than the average indian . So there is an excess 100 to 200 million more people in China’s workface than India. Most of India’s youth are still studying or just started their careers to make a noticeable impact in the GDP. Also China’s women are more involved in the professional world than India. Indeed there is a lot of untapped talent of millions of Indian women that if used properly can transform India to an economic powerhouse and can double per capita incomes. A lot of Indian women sacrifice their careers for family and husbands and this contributes nothing economically to the country. Per capita incomes of India will only rise if both the genders work and contribute equally.

另一个因素。印度人口年轻。中国人的平均年龄比印度人的平均年龄大十岁。因此，中国的工作面人口比印度多出1亿至2亿。印度大多数年轻人仍在学习或刚刚开始他们的职业生涯，以便在国内生产总值中产生显著影响。此外，中国女性比印度更多地参与到专业领域。事实上，数以百万计的印度女性有很多未开发的人才，如果使用得当，可以将印度转变为经济强国，人均收入可以翻一番。很多印度妇女为了家庭和丈夫牺牲自己的事业，这在经济上对国家毫无贡献。印度的人均收入只有在男女同工同酬的情况下才会增加。

6、Martin Andrews

Questions like these have been popping up on Quora at a very fast rate, to all the Indians who ask these questions the only reasonable conclusion I can come up with is that Indians seriously underestimate China and the Chinese people’s capabilities.

像这样的问题以非常快的速度出现，对所有提出这些问题的印度人来说，我能得出的唯一合理结论是，印度人严重低估了中国和中国人民的能力。

China had perfected all the correct fundamentals for development, they have built world class infrastructure with a record spending on infrastructure that is the highest in the world, but the problem is that India needs to spend far more on infrastructure and it is not, this will hinder India’s growth substantially, Indian policy makers don’t seem to understand this.

中国完善了所有正确的发展基础，建设了世界一流的基础设施，在基础设施方面的支出创下了世界最高纪录。但问题是，印度需要在基础设施方面投入比中国更多才行，这种投入不会严重阻碍印度的增长，印度的决策者不会似乎明白这一点。

China gave quality education at a massive scale to its citizens, the result is that even the rural areas in China rank at the OECD average (PISA) and Shanghai which is the best in China absolutely smashed the rest of the world in education, India came last in the PISA rankings and it opted out, this shouldn’t be the response for a country which wants to be a global superpower, Indian skilled labour is also low quality which is a result of bad educational policies and low standards and this will hamper India in a future where the world is moving towards high skilled labour.

中国对国民进行了大规模的优质教育，其结果是，即使是中国的农村地区，在经合组织（OECD）的平均水平（PISA）中的排名也是靠前，中国最好的城市上海，在教育方面也绝对超过了世界其他地区，印度在PISA中排名倒数第二，所以它选择了退出，这不应该是一个国家应有的回应。印度想要成为一个全球超级大国，但其熟练劳动力的质量很低，这是糟糕的教育政策和低标准的结果，这将阻碍印度在未来向高技能劳动力迈进。

7、Essex

Indians seem to be very proud of the fact that the 7.37% growth in GDP for 2018 is faster than China’s growth which is 6.9%, sure being proud is essential as well but one should also be pragmatic, what Indians don’t seem to quite comprehend is that since China’s GDP is much much larger than India’s it actually adds more value to its economy even though it grows “slower”.

印度人似乎非常自豪，2018年7.37%的GDP增长率高于中国6.9%的增长率，当然自豪也是必不可少的，但也应该务实，印度人似乎不太明白的是，由于中国的GDP比印度大得多，尽管中国的经济增长“较慢”，但它实际上中国比印度的经济增长增加了更多的价值。

Chinese GDP for 2017 is $12.25 trillion while the respective figure for India is $2.439 trillion the growth rate during this period for each economy was 6.9% and 6.7% respectively, that means that in absolute terms China added an incredible $1.7 trillion to its economy while India added $362 billion to its economy, in other words China added a bit more than x4 what India added to its economy.

中国2017年GDP为12.25万亿美元，印度为2.439万亿美元，这一时期的经济增长率分别为6.9%和6.7%，这意味着从绝对值来看，中国为经济增加了1.7万亿美元，而印度为经济增加了3620亿美元，换言之，中国增长只是增加了一点，但是其经济超过印度经济增长的4倍。

8、AI Bo

My biggest worry is that India might be growing too slow to escape the middle income trap, there is a real danger that India might become stagnant in the middle income trap because it is not growing fast enough, case in point lets make a comparison to when China was where India is today and compare their respective growth rate:

我最担心的是，印度可能增长太慢，无法摆脱中等收入陷阱，印度确实有可能在中等收入陷阱中停滞不前，因为它的增长速度不够快，举个例子，让我们对比一下中国当时处在的印度这个时期的增长率，并比较一下它们各自的增长率：

Though both economies are comparable we can see that the growth rate exceeds 10% in China while in India it is much lower, I believe it is essential that India grows in excess of 10% at this stage or else it will really struggle to pull a vast amount of people out of poverty and might get stuck in the middle income trap which would be the worst nightmare for India.

尽管这两个经济体都具有可比性，但我们可以看到，中国的增长率超过了10%，而印度的增长率要低得多，我相信，印度在现阶段的经济增长率必须超过10%，否则它将很难把大量的人从贫困中解救出来，并可能陷入中等收入陷阱，这将是印度最可怕的噩梦。

India tried to do a rather unconventional economic strategy, that is jumping straight from agriculture to services while China was and is completing the standard economic strategy that all developed countries followed that is agriculture to manufacturing to services at a rapid rate, India is now joining the manufacturing bandwagon but it is probably too late for that now as the world is heading into automation.

印度试图采取一种相当非传统的经济战略，即从农业直接跳到服务业，而中国过去和现在都在快速完成所有发达国家所遵循的标准经济战略，即从农业到制造业再到服务业，印度现在正在加入制造业的潮流，但现在可能已经太迟了，因为世界正在走向自动化。

Since it is too late to follow the conventional development strategy India is really on its own to develop a country of 1 billion at a massive scale.

印度要想大规模发展一个10亿人口的国家，真的是得靠自己的力量，但现在已经太晚了。

9、The streets of Washington

And no it certainly won’t surpass China in 5 years time because India’s GDP then would be $3.9 trillion and China’s? that would be $18.3 trillion and for reference point the US GDP would be $23.5 trillion.

印度肯定不会在5年内超过中国，因为那时印度的国内生产总值是3.9万亿美元，而中国呢？这将是18.3万亿美元，作为参考点，美国国内生产总值将是23.5万亿美元。

The same big population is not the guarantee for replicating the same growth rate. India cannot replicate China’s economic miracle.

同样大的人口并不能保证复制同样的增长率。印度不能复制中国的经济奇迹。

First, China’s demographic dividend is due to China’s literacy movement before the reform and opening up. The literacy rate of the Chinese population reached 96.4%, while India’s only 72.1%, which means that almost all Chinese labor can join economic construction and industrialization. However, 1/3 The Indian labor force can only engage in the lowest-end non-technical production. The big population of China with the high literacy rate is the demographic dividend, while the big population of India is just the demographic burden.

首先，中国的人口红利来自改革开放前的中国扫盲运动。中国人口的识字率达到96.4%，而印度只有72.1%，这意味着几乎所有的中国劳动力都可以加入经济建设和工业化的行列。然而，1/3的印度劳动力只能从事最低端的非技术性生产。识字率高的中国人口多是人口红利，而印度人口多只是人口负担。

Secondly, India still has a large remnant of caste system and local clan system, which means that more labor will be tied up and unable to join in economic construction.

其次，印度仍有大量的种姓制度和地方宗族制度的残余，这意味着更多的劳动力将被束缚，无法参与经济建设。

Thirdly, whether China, Japan or South Korea, their economic miracles are accompanied by receiving transfer of industries. However, for the next decades, Southeast Asia is clearly the next industrial transfer site which is more suitable and better than India.

第三，无论是中国、日本还是韩国，它们的经济奇迹都伴随着产业转移。然而，在未来几十年里，东南亚显然是比印度更适合成为下一个产业转移地。

Fourthly, Indian “democratic” system always makes serious delays, I don’t wanna make a list here cuz it’s too long.

第四，印度的“皿煮”制度总是会造成严重的拖延，我不想在这里列个单子，因为它太长了。

Fifthly, just my guess, the world will soon enter the era that labor consists entirely of machines and robots (it has already started in many fields), so there’s no need to make industrial transfer and India will become a source of raw materials forever. India may have already missed the golden age of economic development.

第五，我的猜测是，世界将很快进入一个劳动力完全由机器和机器人组成的时代（它已经在许多领域开始），因此没有必要进行产业转移，印度将永远成为原材料的来源地。印度可能已经错过了经济发展的黄金时代。

毫无疑问，针对当前西方经济学家所热炒的概念，不少外国网友的评价可谓是有理有据。

但是一个问题来了：

普通网友都能看透的最简单道理，以专业著称的西方经济学家，为何要选择扭曲甚至欺瞒？