市场可能误判了利率削减的速度和幅度 - 华尔街日报
Alice Uribe
WAM Leaders Fund的首席投资组合经理马修·豪普特表示，投资者可能高估了利率下降的速度，特别是在美国。
“未来曲线上的降息速度现在可能有点过于激进了，”他在接受采访时说道。“我原以为会有一些降息或者降息预期的回落。”
市场观察人士原本预计2023年将是股市的低迷年，因为美联储自上世纪80年代以来加息速度最快。但美联储发出的信号表明，它将转向降息而不是加息，引发了年底股市的反弹。
官员们此后试图打压3月份降息的猜测，但美国期货市场显示，交易员仍然预计那时可能会开始降息。美联储12月会议纪要表明加息已经结束，但没有提供降息的时间表。
“也许第一次会被推迟，我们可能不会得到市场目前所暗示的那么多次降息，”豪普特谈到了美国的降息。
The Fed isn’t alone in turning more dovish. The European Central Bank in December cut its inflation forecasts for 2024, a sign it expects price growth to be tamed soon, and said it would accelerate its exit from a pandemic stimulus program.
The shift is increasingly making an outlier of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which in the minutes of its December meeting continued to send hawkish signals to money markets, keeping the door open to a further increase in the official cash rate next year if its concerns about rising services inflation and strong domestic demand aren’t alleviated.
Haupt said WAM Leaders Fund, which manages around 1.7 billion Australian dollars (US$1.14 billion) and invests in stocks listed on Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index, was positioned for some rate cuts. But the fund has adopted a defensive posture, rather than going for higher-risk stocks.
“If we do go into a rate cut environment, they should rebound quite nicely,” Haupt said of stocks that appear to be deeply discounted.
Gold has been a big play for the highly active Leaders Fund, which is different from traditional buy and hold funds because it manages positions on a daily basis. Gold prices hit a record high of $2,081.90 a troy ounce on Dec. 27.
Haupt also likes real-estate investment trusts and utilities.
Among stocks, the Leaders Fund is looking at those which are trading at decade lows and appear to have been oversold, Haupt said. They include property group Mirvac, Star Entertainment, Treasury Wine Estates and Challenger.
该基金在银行和保险公司方面持有较低权重，并对出售非必需产品的消费类股票持谨慎态度。澳大利亚ASX 200指数的消费类非必需品股票在2023年上涨了近19%，尽管生活成本上涨和利率上升，家庭支出仍然保持稳定。
Haupt表示，澳大利亚政府在疫情期间提供的刺激资金支持了家庭预算。但这股顺风势已大幅减弱，Haupt认为，尽管利率可能会下调，消费类非必需品股票可能会在2023年回吐部分涨幅。
“在正常周期中，消费类非必需品在利率下调周期中期开始表现良好，而不是在开始阶段，”他说道。“我认为明年上半年对消费类非必需品来说会相当困难。”
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